2A). It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. They argue that American democracy is a far stricter, Lockean, Anglo-American system based on the letter of the law and a successful vote cast by a rational, responsible voter. Figure 1. Using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations, we can estimate potential future growth rates for investment decisions. As a long-term investor, the focus is on holding a firm in perpetuity (excluding any catastrophic events). Says Fred Schneider, We are old. Bush's name appeared at the top of the ballot, sparing most Bush voters from error. In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. [22] At the same time that the Bush campaign was contesting hand recounts in Democratic counties, it accepted hand recounts in Republican counties that gained them 185 votes, including where Republican Party workers had been permitted to correct errors on thousands of applications for absentee ballots for Republicans. Figure 10. In addition, some counties had provided an extra 432 total ballots, while others produced 1333 fewer ballots than expected. Half of the overvotes in Duval County had one presidential candidate marked on each page, making their vote illegal under Florida law. The act also divided the country into judicial districts, which were in turn organized into circuits. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. Even though four other Optiscan counties (Hamilton, Polk, Seminole, Taylor) manually reviewed machine-rejected ballots for votes to include in their certified totals, Includes increase in Orange County's unofficially revised machine-tabulated vote total, due to machine later counting 512 ballots that were previously machine-rejected ("could not be distinguished from ballots that were accepted and counted they appeared to be properly completed"): Gore 249, Bush 184 (total 433). Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Furthermore, the Florida Administrative Code: 1S-2.0031, "Write-in Procedures Governing Electronic Voting Systems", (7) at the time specified, "An overvote shall occur when an elector casts a vote on the ballot card and also casts a write-in vote for a qualified write-in candidate for that same office. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Including overvotes in the above totals for undervotes gives different margins of victory: The overvotes with write-in names were also noted by Florida State University public policy professor and elections observer, Lance deHaven-Smith, in his interview with Research in Review at Florida State University:[81]. Spy Kids The large negative sentiment and economic pressures this year have been affecting JPM and the larger financial markets. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Scenario Analysis. Florida statutes also required that all counties certify and report their returns, including any recounts, by 5:00p.m. on November 14. [79] Under the other standards used in the study, Bush's margin of victory increased as looser standards were used. Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris's certification of the election results was thus upheld, allowing Florida's electoral votes to be cast for Bush, making him president-elect. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. On December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court returned this matter to the Florida Supreme Court with an order vacating its earlier decision. The Gore campaign requested that disputed ballots in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia Counties be counted by hand. [15], On December 13, Gore conceded the election to Bush in a nationally televised address. As the manual recounts progressed, most of Florida's counties were considering overseas absentee ballots. The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (3.16% and 2.96%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the long-term future. When the county segregated all ballots by machine for the NORC review, 512 previously rejected ballots were determined to be completely valid. Due to the narrow margin of the original vote count, Florida Election Code 102.141 mandated a statewide machine recount,[5] which began the day after the election. The goal of a long-term dividend investor is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan (perpetuity). I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Sensitivity Analysis vs. Most of the variation occurred in Votomatic overvotes, the least likely ballots to yield votes in a recount. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. Figure 4. That part of the vote count was completed on November 18, increasing Bush's lead to 930 votes. Orange County then performed a hand segregation and determined that these votes numbered 184 for Bush, 249 for Gore and 79 for other candidates. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. A Sensitivity Analysis allows for investors to select their "Buy" price from their own assumptions. [16][17], During the recount, controversy ensued with the discovery of various irregularities that had occurred in the voting process in several counties. Furthermore, the number of undervotes correlates with how well the punch-card machines are maintained, and not with factors such as race or socioeconomic status. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly two-coder general agreement for punch card ballots. ", "Irish-American Republicans - Our Achievements", "Miami Mayor Denies Gore Urged Him to Publicly Support Recount", "Vote-swapping Web sites are legal, appeals court (finally) says", "Nader's Traders vs. State Regulators: Examining the Controversy over Internet Vote Swapping in the 2000 Presidential Election", "Florida Supreme Court Stays Certification of Florida Presidential Ballots; Counties Counting Overseas Absentee Ballots", "Text: Bush Campaign Adviser James A. Baker III", "Text: Gore Campaign Chairman William Daley", "The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida", "Buchanan camp: Bush claims are "nonsense", "THE 2000 ELECTIONS: THE PALM BEACH BALLOT; Florida Democrats Say Ballot's Design Hurt Gore", "PALM BEACH COUNTY CANVASSING BOARD v. HARRIS", "Palm Beach County Canvassing Board v. Harris", "SUPPLEMENTAL BRIEF OF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY CANVASSING BOARD, FOLLOWING REMAND FROM THE SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES", "The Lawyers' Role in Selecting the President: A Complete Legal History of the 2000 Election", "Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election? From affirmative action and hate-crime laws it's a small step to ensuring that all voters, however negligent, have their intent, however vague, reflected in the final result of an election. According to standards being applied by each county at the time. Undervotes from optical-scan counties, however, correlate with Democratic votes more than Republican votes, and in particular to counties that scanned ballots at a central location rather than at precinct locations. Where a ballot is so marked as to plainly indicate the voter's choice and intent, it should be counted as marked unless some positive provision of law would be violated. [77] Florida State University professor of public policy Lance deHaven-Smith observed that, even considering only undervotes, "under any of the five most reasonable interpretations of the Florida Supreme Court ruling, Gore does, in fact, more than make up the deficit". Nine counties (Alachua, Columbia, DeSoto, Glades, Lake, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter and Wakulla) reported that it was their intent to count reclaimable overvotes under the Florida Supreme Court order. Cost-Benefit Analysis: A cost-benefit analysis is a process by which business decisions are analyzed. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. 11. The Herron memo gave postmark and "point of origin" criteria that Herron maintained could be used to challenge overseas ballots. [76], The NORC was expecting 176,446 uncounted ballots to be available from Florida's counties, based on county precinct reports that produced the final, state-certified vote totals. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. Directed by Jay Roach, it starred Kevin Spacey as Ron Klain, Bob Balaban as Benjamin Ginsberg, Ed Begley Jr. as David Boies, Laura Dern as Katherine Harris, John Hurt as Warren Christopher, Denis Leary as Michael Whouley, Bruce McGill as Mac Stipanovich, and Tom Wilkinson as James Baker. [19]:221234.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 40px}.mw-parser-output .templatequote .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;padding-left:1.6em;margin-top:0}. As a dividend investor, the goal is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Scenario Analysis. What is CVP Analysis? Find all the information about sensitivity analysis from meaning, uses, to methods of measurement, parameters while carrying sensitivity analysis and much more. Various flaws and improprieties in Florida's electoral processes were immediately apparent, while others were reported after later investigation. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. Cunningham estimated the number of Buchanan supporters in Palm Beach County to be between 400 and 500. Brady, Henry E.; Collier, David (2004). This showcases a great starting point for dividend investors and portrays potential consistency for short-term to mid-term returns.
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